COST-CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS AND MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF FLU VACCINES

Principal investigators: Patrizio Armeni, Francesco Costa, Carlo Federici  

Team UB/Cergas: Ludovica Borsoi, Carla Rognoni, Carlo Milano, Gaia Segantin

Client: Viatris Italia

Duration: 12 months

Abstract:

Despite improvements in flu vaccine coverage in Italy during the 2020–2021 season (23.7% vs. 16.8% of the total population and 66.5% vs. 54.6% among individuals aged 65+), further expansion is needed to mitigate the health, social, and economic burden of influenza. High-dose flu vaccines, with superior performance and comparable safety, offer an attractive option for older individuals, while newly approved recombinant vaccines could address the needs of younger, socially active populations, reducing productivity losses and broader social costs.

This project aims to evaluate the current flu vaccine coverage and product mix compared to alternative scenarios, including increased and full coverage, by analyzing averted cases, hospitalizations, emergency department accesses, deaths, productivity losses, and reductions in medication use. A cost-consequence analysis, adopting a multi-perspective approach (payer, societal, and patient) over a one-year horizon, will compare current and alternative vaccine uptake scenarios. Additionally, patient preferences will be elicited using discrete choice experiments (DCE), allowing quantification of perceived benefits, willingness-to-pay (WTP), and trade-offs associated with vaccination attributes such as effectiveness, cost, and safety.

The findings will provide a comprehensive assessment of the economic, health, and societal value of expanded flu vaccine coverage, offering evidence to inform public health strategies.